Nifty intraday analysis May 31

1. Nifty is resting on trending channel since last week low
2. Highest volume has been observed today since Feb 24
3. Moving average crossover is about to happen
4. RSI is strong above 30
5. Nifty moved up despite 9 yr low GDP numbers, showing strength
6. This can be also looked as expiry day effect, my fingers are crossed
7. European inflation data is lower which is above expectation

I expect Nifty to trade above till 5070 to 5080, if fails to get past 4957, bulls are in trouble!!
I strongly believe 4750 is last low for any immediate blow for the month of June 2012.

GDP Growth lowest in 9 years

GDP Growth rate is recorded lowest in 9 years. Some optimist have started dreaming of bottoming, few are forecasting even worse number next quarter because Government has done nothing to improve in last two month of current quarter.

Though one positive for today is that Nifty digested the news and march ahead, despite bad global cues, discounting all news and looking for a positive number next quarter. I do hope Bulls will enjoy till June 17

Rupees again hit new low of 56.50, but it paired off loses after RBI clarification on rumors that, RBI has asked state oil companies to restrict purchases of dollars through four state-run banks

GDP figures 2011-2012

GDP Figures 2011-12

Expiray Day Target for Nifty, May 31

Nifty Like to face stiff resistance at 4925 to 4930 range and good support is at 4875 to 4880 range
Before June 17, My target is intact for 5075 to 5100

FTSE update May 29, 2012

As per EW analysis, FTSE has started it's final leg of down move. Target should be around 5000 to 5050 that too before June 17th 2012 i.e Greece Election date. If any positivity comes then it will bounce back sharply.

Anand retains World Chess Championship 2012

I am a chess lover and I know how it feels to see an Indian on world map like a Roaring King. He has made every Indian proud. I wish him very very good luck for coming years and do believe he will retain number one position on ranking charts as well.

“The match was so even that I did not know what shape the tie breaker would take. I am relieved, but too tensed to be happy,” said Anand in the press conference after the victory.

Talking about his opponent, Anand added “He (Gelfand) had many chances to come back in the 3rd and the 5th game.”

Anand beat Gelfand in a 4 match tie breaker. 2.5 to 1.5 in the tie breaker.

Nifty huddle for 29 May @ 4965.40

Nifty again made tweezer top with spinning candle. This time it may created evening star if Nifty closes below 4931, which is a bearish sign. Today's huddle is 4965 which is 23.6% retrenchment. from 4788.95 to 5020.
Down move may restricted to 4931.00

Intraday Update May 29, 2012

Nifty is taking resistance at 5000, Above 5010 buy Nifty for a target of 5050 on spot basis.Below 5090, Target should be 5075

News for the week ended May 27

These are some top stories of the week ended May 27

1. Sensex holds lower end of the 12-week channel, end flat for the week
2. Govt presents White Paper on Black Money
3. Rupee sinks to another record low against Dollar, recovers
4. Morgan Stanley reduces India's growth forecast to 6.3% from 7%
5. Oil Firms announce biggest-ever petrol price hike of Rs 7.50

Tweezer Bottom on Week end May 25

Nifty ended the week with a Tweezer Bottom which is a bullish sign with high reliability. also on daily basis Nifty made Morning Star followed with Bearish Tweezer Top. Though it is bearish tweezer on daily basis but being created in flatten bottom reduced the bearishness.

Weekly target should be 5076 and intraday target should be 4986

for positional trader:

Upmove target: 4957>4986>5010>5075

Downmove Tgt: 4888>4850>4821>4788

Nifty Next Week - May 28, 2012

1. Continuation of Morning star confirmed reversal
2. Nifty has given close above 5 day MA
3. MACD given positive crossover
4. Slow STO is above 20
5. Near term target is 5075 @ 200 SMA before June 11

 

Nifty resting on 200 WMA

1. Nifty is making Tweezer Bottom on weekly chart which is a bullish sign
2. Nifty is testing 200 WMA
3. Touching lower Bollinger Band on weekly basis
4. Last week was 13th week in downtrend, which was a Fibonacci number
5. Next week any close above 4960 is a bullish signal for a minimum target of 40 WMA @ 5080
6. Any closing below 4890 (last week opening) may lead to 200 WMA @4820 then 300 WMA @ 5720
7. Bulls needs to protect 4888 on closing basis to survive

Nifty Outlook for May 24, 2012

Nifty is still in oversold zone, hence a sharp bounce can not be ruled out. Still I would prefer to wait for confirmation, of MACD crossover and ADX down. Till now ADX is in strong trending mode as it is above 25.
US has recovered very smartly, this may give strength to Nifty Bulls.
There might be chances of gap down opening at around  4788

My advise is to go long in the area 4760 to 4770 for a target of 4920 to 4940
Stoploss would be 4750, re-entry chance would be at 4720

Petrol Price increased by Rs 7.50

The government on Wednesday announced a petrol price hike of Rs 7.50 per litre, effective from midnight today. With rupee depreciation leading to jump in oil import bill, Petroleum Minister S Jaipal Reddy on Tuesday had said that there was an immediate need to raise fuel prices.

The government had decontrolled petrol price in June 2010 but rates were last increased on November 4 last year. This despite oil price rising by 14 per cent and 7 per cent fall in value of rupee against the US dollar.

Nifty Outlook May 23, 2012

My observation about tomorrow is as follows

• Ugly bottom is in making
• Rs is at all time high
• RSI reading is lowest in recent past in weekly chart
• 4955 is first huddle to cross for bulls
• 200 Week SMA is at 4822
• Highest continuous (5th week) down on weekly basis
• RBI announces OMO of 12K, which may provide strength to weak Rs.

My conclusion, Nifty is very near to making bottom. Though one should not forgot, that no one is perfect and everybody trade his belief not market. Often we misinterpret about bottom. We start thinking that market will take "V" kind of reversal all the time whenever it will bottom out. However most of the time either it will be ugly bottom or "U" shaped bottom. Hence please have patience to cool down nifty before moving higher.

"RBI conducts OMOs either to soften bond yields or pump in more liquidity. This time, it is aimed at curbing rupee depreciation by giving rupee liquidity support," said A D M Chavali, executive director, Indian Overseas Bank. OMO will took place on Friday, May 25th

Resistance: 4955 > 4920  > 4906
Support:     4822  >  4788 > 4750

4955 is next huddle for Bulls

Nifty has closed with shooting star in today's trading, which is often consider a bearish sign. As global cue is positive till this writing, Nifty may open positive and try to touch 4955 to 4960 level. But sustaining above this level would be very tough for bulls. If closed successfully above this level then 5000 would not be a problem. I would prefer to short Nifty at 4955 to 4960 for a target of 4920 then 4900.

Top News of the week ended May 20th

• Sensex testing the lower end of the crucial channel from Feb'12.
• Rupee sinks to a record low against Dollar.
• Euro hits lowest levels in four months.
• April Inflation soars by 7.23%, dashing hopes of further rate cuts.
• Analysis of 989 companies shows growth in net profit by 2.7%.
• Premium realty deals may come under GAAR for stamp duty evasion.
• PMO suggests SPV to speed up infra projects.
• Incompetent companies may find it hard to rejig debt.
• FaceBook IPO debut falls short of expectations, ends at par with issue price.
• G8 backs Greece, vows to combat financial turmoil.

Nifty Next Week, May 21, 2012

Nifty has recovered faster than expected, which we call disbelief rally, what next?
Reversal confirmation yet to be generated, ADX in consolidating mode, on weekly chart.
Fingers are crossed and many do not want to miss the rally like January 2012. Bears have taken Nifty in full grip. Bulls are waiting for either consolidation or good inputs from government regarding strong measures to stop Rs fall. My advise is to go short or keep away till June 17th which is next election date in Greece. Next bulls huddle is last week high @ 4957
Global Market has closed in deep red, hence it makes sure that Nifty will retest 200 WSMA in coming 4 weeks, before Greece election and before bull run.
Keep in mind, every recession has started with mega IPO, this time it is FACEBOOK.
US closed with heavy loss on Friday,

Freshness in Air

When we did not expect much from Nifty, it delivers. Today I was expecting Nifty to touch 4800 but not expecting at all that it may touch 4900 also. World market was mourning for expected Greece default and Europe was opened gap down and then moved southward. Still our brave nifty taking a clue from SBI result cross the hurdle of 4900 on last day of the week and ended green. Bravo...!!

I am sure many either would have missed today's rally in disbelief or tried to trade in opposite direction only to book loss. Are you one of them?

Nifty mama readers were well aware of the importance of 4820.

 

As per expectation Nifty was supposed to bounce from the trend line which also happen to be near about 200 WSMA. So technical bounce was very much due. What next?
I will publish all possibilities by Sunday evening, till then my expectation is 5080 (200 DSMA). Reveral sign still to be generated by Nifty.

Wait for confirmation

Technically Nifty is oversold, but reversal confirmation yet to receive, please have patience before jumping in market again.
Wait for the confirmation either PPO cut from below of Slow Stochastic reflect the bounce then jump for minimum 100 point gain
Happy trading..!!

200 week SMA @4819 is good hope for bulls

Nifty is nearing 200 Weekly SMA and it is very likely, it will touch the same. I am anticipating sharp bounce from here as it was happened in 2009 summer.
I have noticed a trend Nifty has taken support at 500 Week SMA in great fall of 2008, then before moving sharp rally in March 2009 it was resting/testing 400 Week SMA. in 2012 Jan it was testing 300 WSMA before bounce.

This time 200 WSMA is withing reach. Can history repeat itself this time again??

Please remember every great fall has started with a great IPO, this time Facebook may prove same for investors.

Nifty Future Update

"With -ve Global cues, Failure to take out the highs would maintain the lackluster mode." The A/D ratio turned negative, to 1:3.The action formed a small Bear candle. After 10 consecutive lower lows, Nifty tried to trade above 4920 but it was futile, which remains a crucial area for bulls to move higher.
Today Nifty has made a double bottom in last two hour which suggest Bulls reluctant to move lower. US future is down and taking rest on minor support at 12500.
tomorrow if Nifty opened below 4827, one may take short position at around 4800 to 4827 for target of 4770 then 4750

Keep an eye do not try to trade in opposite direction if found Nifty at 4750 in early hour of the trade.

recession, frustration, depression

Investors, Traders and FII all looked puzzled at same time. What Indian economy is witnessing for the last three or four years is certainly not rosy picture of growth.
Oil prices are not cooling off, Inflection is reluctantly high, FII is not obliging anymore, retail trader is fearsome, RBI was forced to cut 50 basic paisa in rate now they are clueless about depreciation of Indian Currency. What will happen? no one knows.
I tried to draw a link between UPA government tenure and our economy data and find out the following

In the last 8 years (May 13, 2004 to May 13, 2012) of UPA government Indian currency has depreciated the most, touching new low yesterday.

Current account is under pressur, in 2004 it was positive for last three years, since then negative for the last 7 years.

In 2004 India's current account was positive now it is all time low. What happen in last eight years?

This is one fig we can say UPA government looks good.

At the time UPA government sworn in center, we were growing at the rate of more than 10% now it has been reduced to just above 6%

Just have a look at India balance of trade chart since 2004, what happen I do not know as I need to understand more before commenting any further.
I have not higher level understanding of economy, I am a occasional trader and long term investor. I know one thing, 50% of my shares are trading at the level it was on the day when UPA won second term. Still 2 years to go......!!@#$%^&*

Nifty support is in the range 4800 to 4820

1. I am looking at support joining trend line with major lows formed by Nifty. and it indicated around 4800 to 4820
2. Hourly chart has also developed positive divergence
3. Europe situation is not very promising still US is recovering from it's low and in the making of opposite hammer which is short term reversal sign
4. I believe, Nifty should give a bounce back. Creating long position between 4830 to 4850 is advisable

 On Closing price basis, Nifty has already touch the trend-line at 4900

Europe sink as Greece fears resume

European stocks sold off sharply Monday, following yet another failure by Greek politicians to form a coalition government and a disappointing vote in Germany's largest state
"We view many Spanish banks as vulnerable to the current recession and ongoing real estate crisis," wrote Moody's analysts in a weekly credit outlook Monday. "We expect problem loans an loan losses to growth further."

Turmoil in Greece, and its tendency to get worse not better, is one of the most troubling aspects of the European economy. The lack of any obvious solution for the nation's beleaguered economy, and the specter of a possible exit from the eurozone, has caused Greece to spread its discord through the rest of the continent.

"Political uncertainly stemming from the outcome of the Greek elections has unsettled the markets," wrote Laurence Boone, in a report that he coauthored with other analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The next weeks are crucial for Greece, as political paralysis could threaten the new program, potentially triggering tail risk scenarios that could eventually result in an exit from the euro area."

 Indian investors should only watch for the outcome next week, because our market is die hard follower of global market

Nifty likely to face hurdle in the range of 5125 - 5160 levels

Nifty after breaching of the last two months trading range has struggled to move past the 200 DMA (5103) during last week trade. The Nifty drifted lower after testing the 200 days SMA on Tuesday's trade. The corrective price action may continue until we see a faster retracement of the recent falls and a breach of the lower peaks and troughs formations.

Nifty has closed below the 61.8% retracement level (4950) of the December-February rally. In the process, it has also filled the previous rising gap area of 4980 formed on January 19, 2012. Sustenance below 4950 levels in the coming sessions will see the index eventually heading for a deeper retracement of the January-February rally to the extent of 70-75%, which projects major support near 4850-4800 area.

On the higher side the Nifty will face major hurdle in the range of 5125 - 5160 levels which is the previous week high and the recent support area as the said support is likely to reverse its role as a resistance.

In India, events to watch would be monthly WPI. Key results to watch out next week would be Capital goods major L & T, Bajaj Auto, SBI, Tata Steel and Coal India.