Friday, March 30, 2012

Nifty Outlook Mar 30

  1. Bullish crossover of 50 and 200 SMA,
  2. Slow Stochastic is in oversold Zone
  3. Nifty is resting on 200 SMA
All the above conditions are favoring bulls, now if Nifty closed above 5217 which is eventually January 2012 high, then we may see rest of the year in green. please review article "January month Strategy"

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Short Covering close Nifty higher

Short Covering put Nifty higher on expiry day. Tomorrow an important level is 5217 which is Jan high. Nifty need to close above this level to keep bulls hope alive.

January Month Strategy

Starting from 2003 ……… watch 2003 nifty Jan month high. its 1105.60 … now watch data of coming months of 2003 only when nifty closed above Jan month high … if m not wrong then it is may 2003 when nifty closing price was 1106.80 .. Means above Jan 2003 high price.. And pls watch after that nifty never came down below Jan 2003 month high on closing basis till 31st dec 2003. According to strategy it was clear signal for market player to go long after may 2003... For whole 2003 year.

Now just watch 2004 Jan high – it is = 2014.65 never closed above this level in 2004 whole year means clear signal no buy in 2004 .

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Niftyoutlook March 28

Nifty traded between four important resistance and support zone
  1. Lower level of bollinger band acting as support
  2. 200 SMA acting as support
  3. 50 SMA acting as resistance
  4. Middle level of bollinger band acting as resistance
 On weekly Chart, middle of BB comes around 5085,
     Highest volume can be noticed at 5285 hence bulls need to trade above this level for good bull run, on lower side 5180 would provide strong support
    As per slow stochastic, Nifty is in oversold zone, but one need to wait for crossover.
    Now actual fight between bulls and bears is to protect 200 DSMA and then  20 WSMA(middle BB on weekly chart). Equally strong is daily bollinger band.

    Friday, March 23, 2012

    Goldman upgrades Indian stocks to 'marketweight'

    Goldman Sachs upgrades India Stocks to "marketweight" from "underweight". in its latest Asia-Pacific Quarterly Outlook report dated March 22, saying domestic growth will pick up, while stock valuations remain "relatively attractive."
    Investment bank Goldman Sachs upgraded Indian equities and expects the Nifty to touch 6,100 by 2013, said a research report from the company.
    Indian growth will pick up to 7.2% this year and 7.8% in 2013, from 6.9% last year, Goldman added, while slowing core inflation would allow Reserve Bank of India to cut the repo rate by 150 basis points during fiscal 2013.
    "We believe growth will indeed pick up in India over the next one to two quarters and that the equity market will start to reflect these prospects in the coming months," Goldman said in its report.
    On challenges, Goldman said oil prices remain "the most significant risk" to their "positive" view on India.

    FTSE mid day update Mar 23

    1. FTSE is trading in huge expanding triangle. A bounce can not be ruled out

    Thursday, March 22, 2012

    Nifty outlook March 23, 2012

     

    • 5171 is line of control between Bulls and Bears
    • 50 WSMA is around 5228, closing of the week below this may create panic
    • 200 DSMA is at around 5155, this may prove final support for the market


      Camerilla Level for Nifty - Mar 23, 2012

      Important Support for Nifty is 5170 and Resistance is 5250

      March 22 FTSE trading below support line

      FTSE is trading below it's all trend line and support line, now if it push hard and close above 5360 can only give positive outlook

      Google Taking Support

      Google is taking support on joining the line from low of 12 March to 21 March. Bulls need to protect this trend line from any sudden fall.





      Wednesday, March 21, 2012

      Dow and FTSE update


      •  
      • Dow and FTSE both has made a setup of sharp fall if not sustained at their respective support
      •  Dow is treading below the trend line and already started corrective move

      Nifty Hourly chart Analysis

       
      Nifty set up is again ready for high opening and then coming down. So for tomorrow one can expect a shorting opportunity near 5400.


      Bulls are knocking the door



      • Bulls taking support of 50 DSMA and 50 WSMA
      • Nifty is moving in traiangle
      • Possible resistance zone is 5400 to 5420
      • Support has been shifted to 5300

      Tuesday, March 20, 2012

      Nifty outlook for March 21

      • Any close below 5233 (today's low) would drag Nifty to 5184
      • Bulls last hope is 5185
      • Bears need to break down 50 WSMA or 50 DSMA both are placing at around same level
      • US and UK is down for more than 1.0% amide poor housing data


      Monday, March 19, 2012

      Analyst vs Broker

      A stock analyst and a Wall Street broker went to the races. The broker suggested to bet $10,000 on a horse. The analyst was sceptical, saying that he wanted first to understand the rules, to look on horses, etc. The broker whispered that he knew a secret algorithm for the success, but he could not convince the analyst.
      "You are too theoretical," he said and bet on a horse. Surely, that horse came first bringing him a lot of money. Triumphantly, he exclaimed: "I told you, I knew the secret!"
      "What is your secret?" the analyst asked.

      Sunday, March 18, 2012

      Sachin Ramesh "Ton"dulkar, The Pride of India


      Congratulating Sachin Tendulkar for scoring his 100th century in international cricket today, BCCI secretary Sanjay Jagdale said it was a matter of pride for every Indian.

      "It is a matter of pride for all. It is a great achievement. Unparalleled in the history of cricket," Jagdale told PTI over phone.

      Unbelievable Catch by Suresh Raina

      Friday, March 16, 2012

      Budget Day Mar 16

      Nifty behaved very  much on line of expectation today. It moved up, then down. It was full of volatility and learning for day trader.

      Thursday, March 15, 2012

      How to trade on Budget Day, March 16, 2011

      Tomorrow is budget day and high volatility would prevail the market. As per technical analysis suggest, nifty is taking support and close above the support zone, please view the chart below.
      Nifty may correct further till 5320>5300>5280 and then it will turn up again. As global cue is very bullish. In the morning before starting the budget session market will be choppy and at around 11:00 AM it will start moving upside in speculation of good news. As it always happen good news been reveled first. Then as soon Bad news would start coming or below expectation news would drag the Nifty where it has started. Till now option writers are still bullish. On last budget day, Nifty has shown huge volatality, it was moved 170 points upside and then come down 170 point making a doji for the day. Please read my article: remembering Feb 28, 2011. Post the event there would be sharp fall in volatility. As EW count we have completed corrective wave and now, up trend would start to resume soon.


      D Day - Mar 16, 2012

      The Stock market has put up a disappointing show in a month after the Budget announcement, eight times in the past 11 years, but analysts are opined that this time the government's move on policy reforms may provide a positive surprise. The markets are usually flat in the month ahead of the Budget and, in two out of three years, fall in the month following it. As analysis of the market performance one month after the Budget month, market, has been in positive territory on just three occasions. This time one more factor has been discounted and that is a chance of reform oriented Budget. let's see the argument. After UP election, Congress is looking vulnerable at center, so it may try again to present one more goody goody budget which may not reform oriented. Chances of mid term election may also keep reformative budget at a distance. After rail budget yesterday, Mamata Benerjee has also signaled not very long to stay with congress at center, however SP has announced will support center to avoid any mid term election.

      Nifty intraday analysis Mar 15

      Market reacted overly to RBI policy of not cutting the interest rate and dive to 80 points. Weak global cues added more to bears power only. Today Nifty resisted 5420 and 5400 and find support at 5430, 5400 and 5360.

      Nifty replaces RCOM and RPOWER with Asian Paints and Bank of Baroda. It will add more panic to Reliance shares mostly under ADAG. Yes Asian Paints is more stable of them all.

      Wednesday, March 14, 2012

      Nifty outlook March 15

      Classical example of resistance and support occure for any student for technical analysis. 5470 proved very crucial for today. Tomorrow if Nifty opened above this level even by 10 points, there is strong possibility that bulls are round the corner at least for coming two days.
      Look out for RBI meeting outcome tomorrow and Budget the following day.

      Nifty intraday outlook for Mar 14

      On Intraday basis 5470 proved strong resistance. Momemtum require to break this above. If Nifty closes above 5470 today, it may touch 5550 tomorrow on RBI and budget speculation. High volatility is on card

      Buy Nifty at around 5430

      I expect Nifty to move up for 30 point gain above the trend line drawn.

      Tuesday, March 13, 2012

      What do you want from Budget


      FTSE Update

      FTSE Continue it's rise on fifth day which allow it to make new eight month high. investors turned their attention toward tonight’s Federal Reserve meeting after the euro area’s finance ministers approved a second bailout for Greece.

      13 is no more unlucky, Dow Jones

       
      Dow is making continuously new high and defying all unlucky factor related to 13
      The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index advanced 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1383, reaching its highest level since June 2008. The Nasdaq Composite added 29 points, or 1%, to 3012, putting it on course to close above 3000 for the first time in more than a decade, after briefly flirting with the round number late last month.

      Nifty Hang On

      Nifty jumped more than 50 point amidth positive global cues and before budget hype. Expect some more upmove tomorrow, then quick slide in down in inevitable.

      Nifty preopening Mar 13

      US managed to close positive on fourth session. This may give Nifty a positive opening. However 5400 may prove very strong resistance for any upmove.
      5395 to 5400 may be used for selling as it is near to 78.6% retrenchment from 4529  to 5630
      VIX is resting on 200 SMA which may spic anytime soon.

      Monday, March 12, 2012

      Nifty outlook Mar 13

      Nifty did not show any breakout above 5370 or below 5330. It has closed in the middle and one can expect wild move once breaking this range.
      Better than expect IIP data bring curtain down on expected rate cut on March 15 RBI meeting.
      Many in the market expect it to wait until after the federal budget, to be delivered on Friday, before it starts cutting interest rates after raising them 13 times through October. The RBI has another policy review set for April 17.